Coinbase Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook

Coin Metrics State of the Network is an unbiased, weekly view of the crypto market informed by our own network (on-chain) and market data.

Key Takeaways:

• We estimate Q4 2025 total revenue of $1.77B, down 5% from Q3’s $1.87B, as lower trading volumes and asset prices offset growth in derivatives trading and USDC.
• Transaction revenue is expected at $978M (-6% QoQ), with Deribit’s full quarter driving growth in the institutional segment.
• Subscriptions & services remain resilient at $723M, as USDC supply growth offsets Fed rate cuts and lower staking rewards.
• For FY 2025, we estimate total revenue of approximately $7.2B, reflecting Coinbase’s continued revenue diversification and strategic expansion into derivatives.

Introduction

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) is set to report Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on February 12th. 2025 presented a transformative year for Coinbase, painted by bouts of market volatility, but also meaningful strategic progress. The passage of the GENIUS Act provided long awaited regulatory clarity for stablecoins, while Coinbase advanced its “everything exchange” vision, growing the flywheel between its trading and subscription businesses through revenue diversification and strategic expansions.

These earnings come on the back of a strong Q3, with Coinbase delivering $1.87B in total revenues, up 25% QoQ and 55% YoY. Going into the results, COIN is currently trading at ~$164/share, down ~61% from its high in July 2025, reflecting recent declines across the broader crypto market.

In this issue of State of the Network, we provide an outlook for Coinbase’s Q4 2025 earnings using a combination of exchange data, on-chain metrics, and publicly available information.

Transaction Revenue

Coinbase’s transaction revenue remains its largest, but most cyclical segment of its business, comprising 50-70% of total revenue in recent quarters. It encompasses consumer and institutional trading activity across spot and derivatives markets, alongside “Other transaction revenue” from Base L2 fees and payment services. This makes it highly correlated with trading volumes and on-chain activity, which in turn are driven by crypto prices and market volatility.

Spot Trading Activity Heads Lower After October Volatility

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

Based on exchange activity, Coinbase saw ~$256B in Q4 2025 spot trading volume, 12% lower than the previous quarter. Record liquidations and volatility in October drove a spike in volumes, but trading activity compressed through November and December as Bitcoin corrected from its all-time high near $126K. As seen in the asset mix below, trading activity favored BTC (from 24% to 33%), while a reduction in ETH and other crypto-asset share points to reduced retail (consumer) participation.

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

Dark Horse: Derivatives & Deribit

In Q3, Coinbase saw an outsized gain in institutional transaction revenue driven by derivatives. Its mid August acquisition of Deribit contributed $52M from just six weeks of ownership. Q4 marks Deribit’s first full quarter under Coinbase, with combined derivatives volume from futures and options reaching approximately $1.25 trillion across Deribit and Coinbase, positioning derivatives as an increasingly meaningful revenue driver.

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

A Boost for Base

Coinbase earns revenue from transaction fees for ordering and processing transactions on the Base blockchain, while incurring costs in the form of blob fees paid to Ethereum Layer-1 for settlement. As shown below, Q4 2025 saw approximately $19M in gross sequencer revenue, with October’s $10M driven by heightened on-chain activity during the market volatility. After accounting for L1 data costs and the OP Collective revenue share, net Base revenue is estimated at approximately $15M for the quarter.

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

Transaction Revenue Outlook

Based on Q4 spot volume of $256B and derivatives volume of $1.26T, we estimate transaction revenue at $978M, down 12% from $1.046B in Q3. We expect that:

• Consumer revenue falls ~16% to $708M, reflecting lower spot volumes and reduced retail participation as trading activity rotated toward Bitcoin.
• Institutional revenue grows ~52% to $205M, driven by Deribit’s first full quarter of contribution.
• Other transaction revenue (Base sequencer fees + payments) remains stable at ~$65M.

Subscriptions & Services Revenue

Subscriptions and services has been a key source of revenue diversification for Coinbase, pushing it closer to a financial “super app”. Non-trading revenue now makes up $746M, consistently growing quarter-over-quarter and providing a more stable earnings base compared to the cyclicality of transaction revenue.

Source: Coinbase Q3 Shareholder Letter

Stablecoin Interest Income

USDC continues to play a pivotal role for Coinbase. Stablecoin revenue (interest income from USDC reserves from its relationship with Circle) was the largest contributor to subscriptions and services, bringing in $355M in Q3 2025.

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

In Q4, average USDC market cap rose 9% to $74.1B, driven by continued stablecoin adoption. Coinbase earns 100% of the interest income on USDC held on-platform (~22% of supply) and 50% on off-platform circulation (~78%). Applying an implied yield of 3.25% due to two 25bps Fed rate cuts in October and December, we estimate Q4 stablecoin interest income at $367M, up 3% sequentially as supply growth partially offsets yield compression.

Blockchain Rewards & Other Subscriptions and Services Segments

Blockchain rewards were the second-largest revenue source in Coinbase’s subscriptions and services segment, generating $186M in Q3 2025. In Q4, staking balances remained relatively stable as ETH staked held flat at 35.7M while SOL staked grew modestly to 415M (+2.7%). However, average asset prices declined significantly (ETH -12.5%, SOL -16.7%), and SOL staking yields compressed by ~7.5%. The combination of lower prices and yields more than offset the modest balance growth. As a result, we estimate Q4 blockchain rewards at approximately $158M, down 15% sequentially.

Interest and finance fee income is expected to remain stable at approximately $65M, as continued growth in institutional loan balances, which hit a record $1.2B in Q3, offsets the impact of lower rates. Other subscription and services revenue, which includes custodial fees and ecosystem partnership earn-outs, is expected at approximately $136M, slightly lower than $143M from Q3 as asset price declines weigh on AUC-linked fees.

Towards an Everything Exchange

Beyond its core trading and subscription businesses, Coinbase continues to build out its “everything exchange” vision, creating a flywheel where the product stack grows symbiotically. Several initiatives in development could drive incremental revenue in future quarters.

Onchain lending through integrations with protocols like Morpho enables USDC-denominated borrowing, driving stablecoin demand while generating interest income. Tokenized stocks and real-world assets settling in USDC bridge multiple asset classes and financial functions onto crypto rails. Prediction markets expand use cases and platform engagement, while driving demand for USDC for trade settlement. Meanwhile the acquisition of token launchpad, Echo and integration of DEXs creates incremental listing and trading revenue, as seen with recent projects like Monad.

While these initiatives have yet to materially impact revenue, they reflect Coinbase’s strategy to capture value across the crypto ecosystem and become a financial super app.

Conclusion

We estimate Coinbase will report Q4 2025 total revenue of approximately $1.77B, down 5% from Q3’s $1.87B. For full-year 2025, this brings total revenue to approximately $7.2B.

• Transaction Revenue: $978M (vs. $1,046M in Q3)
• Subscription & Services: $726M (vs. $747M in Q3)
• Corporate Interest & Other: $73M (vs. $76M in Q3)
• Total Revenue: $1,777M (vs. $1,869M in Q3)

Retreating trading volumes and asset price declines weighed on transaction and staking revenue, but Deribit’s first full quarter and record USDC supply provided meaningful growth. While regulatory shifts, market competition, and interest rate risks remain, subscription and services now account for 41% of net revenue, highlighting Coinbase’s progress toward a more durable earnings base. As Coinbase expands its product suite across the broader financial services stack from derivatives, to tokenized equities and prediction markets, it continues to inch closer to its vision of an everything exchange.

‍^{Disclaimer: The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. Talos Trading, LLC and its affiliates (“Talos”) does not give any representations or warranties in relation to the accuracy, validity, or completeness of the information of this material, including without limitation the factual information obtained from publicly available sources considered by Talos to be reliable at the time. Talos accepts no liability for any consequences of using the information contained in this material. Any opinions or estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment made by the author(s) as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Neither this material nor any copy thereof may be taken, reproduced, or redistributed, directly or indirectly, without Talos’s prior written permission. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Talos. This communication does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a promotion or recommendation of, any digital asset, security, derivative, commodity, financial instrument, or product or trading strategy. This document and information are not intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.}

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